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Methodology

Every entry on this site follows the rules below. Most of them are enforced automatically: an entry that breaks a rule cannot be published.

What goes on the timeline

A release is included if it is at least one of:

  • a new flagship or new generation of a frontier model;
  • a new product or feature from a major lab that opened a new category, or was widely covered as a step change;
  • a notable open-weights model;
  • a major pricing or access change that shifted who could use AI;
  • the retirement of a major AI product or model.

Releases are dated by when the public could actually use them, as stated in the official announcement. An earlier preview or demo is mentioned on the release's page but not plotted separately.

Every release links to at least one primary source: the company's own announcement, blog post, release notes or paper.

When a product counts as “said to be replaced”

A product only appears on the roadside if all of these are true:

  • It was named. Someone said a specific release threatened this specific product. General talk about a whole category (“AI will kill language apps”) is not enough.
  • At least two independent publishers said it, such as news outlets, analysts or the company's own filings, within 90 days after the release. A post on social media is never enough on its own.
  • We show the link. Each claim carries a short, exact quote from a published source that names both the release and the product. The quote is checked word for word against the source page.

A sharp share-price fall on the day of the release, the company itself naming AI as a risk, or an analyst note can add to the evidence, but none of them replaces the named claim.

How verdicts are decided

Verdicts follow fixed rules, and every verdict shows its dated, sourced evidence.

  • Dead: shut down, discontinued or bankrupt, confirmed by the company's own announcement or an official filing. The date shown is the day it closed.
  • Badly hurt: a figure from an official, checkable source crossed at least one of these lines. Official sources are the company's own announcement, a filing by the company or its parent company, or a regulatory or court record. The company doesn't need to be publicly traded. Estimates, such as website-traffic estimates, can support a verdict but never decide one.
    • revenue down 20% or more year on year, for 2+ quarters in a row;
    • users or traffic down 25% or more, for 2+ quarters in a row;
    • layoffs of 15% or more of staff;
    • shares down 50% or more from the day of the claim to the latest check, while the wider market fell less than 10% over the same period.
  • Still fine: none of the above, at least 12 months after the claim was made, and a sourced fact from the last 12 months shows the product is still doing normally. Missing information is never treated as “fine”: a product with no published information either way is left out.
  • Too early to tell: the claim is less than 12 months old.

A verdict describes what happened to the product. It does not claim the AI release caused it. Many things affect a business at once.

How entries are checked

  • Every entry is researched from sources, then checked a second time, separately, before it is published.
  • Source links are checked automatically for dead pages, and every claim quote is checked automatically against its source.
  • If a fact cannot be verified, it is left out. Wrong is worse than missing.

Corrections

See the corrections page.